Title
Receive and accept the semi-annual report of expenditures and caseload data for the Department of Social Services for the period of January through June 2025.
Report
RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended that the Budget Committee:
Receive and accept the semi-annual report of expenditures and caseload data for the Department of Social Services for the period of January through June 2025.
SUMMARY/DISCUSSION:
The attached report represents actual caseload and expenditure data through June 2025.
The report compares data month-to-month and year-to-year against last year and against FY 2019-20 where majority of the year was pre-pandemic for the following programs:
General Assistance (GA) caseload slightly increased from 444 in December 2024 to 506 in June 2025, an increase of 62 cases. From a year-to-year perspective, there is an average increase of 30% and caseload has surpassed the “pre-pandemic” caseload. Assistance costs reflect an increase of 27% from prior year which correlates with the rise in caseload. (See attached chart, page 1).
Mid-Year Estimates forecasted a budget shortfall of $406,417, however, we ended the year with a shortfall of $451,230. The Board approved RES 25-108 to increase the General Assistance Appropriations for FY 2024-25, financed by a transfer of General Fund Contributions from Social Services Budget. For FY 2025-26, the Department requested an augmentation of $479,891 and the Board approved $359,918 for this entitlement program.
CalWORKs caseload reflecting a slight increase of 121 cases from December 2024. From a year-to-year perspective, there is an average caseload and expenditures increase of 7%. CalWORKs caseloads continues to increase in the winter months of December through April, before starting to trend down. Additionally, the Department notes that current caseload and expenditures surpasses the “pre-pandemic” levels for this entitlement program also. CalWorks grant aid increased approximately $2 per person on October 1, 2024. (See attached chart, page 2).
Based upon the Mid-Year Estimates, the budget was forecasted to exceed current appropriation levels by $2.1 million, however, by the end of the year, the Program only required $1.5 million in increased appropriations financed by federal, state, and realignment revenues. For FY 2025-26, the budget was increased $4.3 million from the prior years’ adopted budget.
CalFresh caseload has slightly decreased by 451 cases over the last six months. However, from a year-to-year perspective, there is an overall 7% increase in the caseload. In comparison, the current caseload surpassed the “pre-pandemic” levels. Caseload sizes for the programs will be monitored with the recent immigration policies at the national level. (See attached chart, page 3).
Medi-Cal caseload has increased by 4,442 cases over the last six months, but overall from a year-to-year perspective, there a slight decrease of -2%. (See attached chart, page 3). Caseload sizes for the programs will be monitored with the recent immigration policies at the national level in addition to the ending of several Medi-Cal waivers on June 30, 2025, which increased automated redeterminations to occur.
IHSS paid hours increased by 70,031 over the 6-month reporting period and an 8% increase on a year to year comparison. As the population ages and lives longer, those on IHSS have increased needs the longer they stay in the program, so hours will fluctuate and increase as caseload grows. Additionally, undocumented persons and minors continue to receive benefits based on recent years’ program changes.
Expenditures have increased 16% from the prior year due to the increase in hours worked which drives the increased costs for wages and benefits. In this report period, a negotiated wage increase of $0.50 went into effect on January 1, 2025, increasing the IHSS negotiation wage to $19.24. There is a caregiver waitlist for health benefits of 96. (See Attached chart, page 4).
Based upon the Mid-Year Estimates, the budget was forecasted to exceed current appropriation levels by $251,958, however, by the end of the year, the Program only required $164,201in increased appropriations financed by federal, state, and realignment revenues. For next year, it is forecasted that the expenditures will increase $1.4 million which will be covered by federal, state, and realignment revenues. Note: County share of cost increased $833,002 in the new year that will be financed by realignment revenues.
Out of Home Care includes cases in Foster Care (including youth opting to stay in Foster Care to age 21), Probation, and Adoption Assistance. The caseload has slightly decreased by 35 cases over the last 6 months. The average caseload year-to-year decreased -4%, and the caseload is still considerably lower than pre-pandemic times mainly due to programs implemented that reduce the number of children coming into care. The children that are coming into care have more acute needs, such as substance abuse, suicidal ideation, aggression as a trauma response where they hit others. (See attached chart, page 5).
Although there are less children in care, our costs have increased 6% in comparison to the prior year, but less than what was paid in the pre-pandemic years. The Department is seeing a large shift of costs to the County because of the high number of children in our care have very high-acute needs which is very costly.
Based upon the Mid-Year Estimates, the budget was forecasted to exceed current appropriation levels by $2.1 million, however costs did not exceed the adopted budget. By the end of the year, Program did not exceed their appropriations, however the county share of cost increased $4.2 million which was covered by realignment revenues. For FY 2025-26, the Department requested an augmentation of $1.5 million, and the Board approved $1,125,000 for this entitlement program.
OTHER AGENCY INVOLVEMENT/COMMITTEE ACTIONS:
Probation placement costs are included in Foster Care.
FINANCING:
The Department increased appropriations in CalWORKs and General Assistance to meet the final need for these entitlement programs in FY 2024-25. The increased county share of costs was covered under realignment revenues. There was no impact to the County General Fund. The Department will continue to closely monitor the costs of these entitlement programs in comparison to the current operating budget since all the programs have been trending high in both caseload and/or expenditures.
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS:
Mark a check to the related Board of Supervisors Strategic Initiatives:
___Economic Development
___Administration
_X_Health & Human Services
___Infrastructure
___Public Safety
Prepared by: Becky Cromer, Finance Manager III, x4404
Approved by: Roderick Franks, Department of Social Services Director, x4430
Attachments: January - June 2025 Caseload and Expenditure Report