Title
a. Receive the Monterey County Financial Forecast, which assesses the County's fiscal condition for the current year and three forecast years (FY 2016-17 through FY 2018-19); and
b. Approve the recommended actions as outlined in the Monterey County Financial Forecast.
Report
RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended that the Board of Supervisors:
a. Receive the Monterey County Financial Forecast, which assesses the County's fiscal condition for the current year and three forecast years (FY 2016-17 through FY 2018-19); and
b. Approve the recommended actions as outlined in the Monterey County Financial Forecast.
SUMMARY:
The County's financial forecast is the first step of the annual budget development cycle. Staff conducts a comprehensive mid-year review of planned spending and anticipated revenues for the current year, budget year, and two additional out years. The result of this review is an assessment of the County's financial health and capacity to fund current levels of service and operations for the remainder of the fiscal year and beyond.
DISCUSSION:
Based on staff's review of planned spending and anticipated revenues, the County will face a $16.0 million funding gap in current services in 2016-17. In addition, the County has a number of unfunded financial needs totaling over $29 million. These financial needs include ongoing operating needs and non-recurring capital needs, which are detailed in the attached report.
The funding gap emerging next fiscal year is more the result of growing expenditures than it is about revenues. Although some departments have experienced program-specific revenue losses, overall general fund revenues are forecasted to grow $19.8 million (3.5%) next fiscal year compared to prior year actuals. Included in this revenue growth is $11.7 million in discretionary non-program revenue growth. Meanwhile, departments forecast expenditures to grow $71.5 million over prior year actuals. Part of this growth can be attri...
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